S&P/Case-Shiller Report: June 2010

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for June 2010 was released this week. The report shows "show that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 4.4% in the second quarter of 2010, after having fallen 2.8% in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6% above their year-earlier levels. In June, 17 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up; and the two composites and 15 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices have rebounded from crisis lows, but other recent housing indicators point to more ominous signals as tax incentives have ended and foreclosures continue."

YoY, DC prices rose 6.57%. However, it's interesting to note that since April, the YoY and Month/Month rate of increase, while positive, is declining to flat.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

Show me the love!

My friends, I've been blogging about DC real estate for the past five years. In that time, I've provided:

• Insightful analyses
• Incredibly detailed charts and tables depicting sales by ward, zip code, neighborhood, and, for condos, by individual buildings.
• MRIS reports that are better than MRIS' reports
• Thick sales reports that few of you bought
• Richly detailed maps 
• Witticisms and bon mots
• Trenchant links

So now I'm asking you to show me the love! Zillow has nominated this meek, unassuming blog as the Best Real Estate Blog in DC. Vote for me! A click on that beautiful Zillow icon down there is a vote for this blog. [Update 1: select blog #6 on the list, dchousingprices.com] 

You can vote once per 24 hours. Voting ends at 3PM EDT on August 25, 2010. Once the voting is over, the blog with the most votes will be declared the winner in each city. This means each of you have two opportunities to tell those folks in Seattle [the second best doggone place in the USA] that this is the best real estate blog in your nation's capital!

Start Update 2 [as amended by Update 3]
I discovered earlier today that the VOTE button does not appear in all instances when you attempt to vote for the best DC real estate blog not written by professional journalists or licensed realtors. My experience was that when using a laptop, I saw the VOTE button only when I used Safari 5.0.1 for Mac; I could not see it when I used Firefox 3.6.8 [Mac] or IE 7 [Win XP] and the window listing my blog and the other riff raff could not be moved to reveal the VOTE button.

I contacted Zillow about this and they basically said they had not been aware of the problem until now and the train has left the station, i.e., they can't fix it before polling ends Wednesday.

I replied in an email that people who live in DC are sensitive about not being represented in Congress - that's why our license plates have "Taxation Without Representation" emblazoned on them. I asked them not to make that feeling worse by not providing an alternate way for us to vote for the best DC real estate blog not written by professional journalists or licensed realtors.

You could:

• Use a desktop PC/Mac [I assume that works].
• Use Safari or, if you or your neighbors don't have a Mac and Safari, go to your local Apple store and vote using one of the demo systems on hand. Any reason to go to the Apple store is a good reason and this is a damned good reason!

I've proposed to Zillow that the following alternate voting methods be allowed:

• You send me an email stating you're voting for me and I'll forward the emails to them. Click here to email me.
• You tweet "Hey Zillow! DC votes for DCHousingPrices.com! #dchousingprices", or something like that. However, you must include the hashtag #dchousingprices in your tweet or once again you're not represented.

I've not received Zillow's response to my proposal since it was 3:30AM PDT when I sent it to them. So let's do as I suggested and see what happens. 
End Updates 2 and 3

Please, my momma's getting old. Do this for me so I can show her that her son really is a success in the big city.



As we used to say in Texas [and Louisiana], vote and vote often!

I thank you.

MRIS July 2010 Housing Report

MRIS released its data for July about two weeks ago. I think the report's a little deceptive. Yes, average prices are up. However, unit sales and dollar are down. It turns out that having 50 units sell for more than $1 million can sure juice the month's average sales price. Oh, and has anyone mentioned that inventory has exploded?



Key points in July's data:

• YoY, aggregate dollar volume fell 7.02% and the number of units sold cratered 18.36% [I learned a new verb!]. However, average sales price rose an impressive 13.9%.
• Condo dollar volume fell off a cliff, down 17.98%. Home dollar volume was comatose, down 0.4%.
• Condo sales volume were pushed off the cliff, down 29.45%. Home sales volume was down 8.26%. 
• Average prices exhibited a split personality. Condo prices increased 16.26%, while home prices were up 8.57%.

At July's sales rate there's a 7.02 months supply of condos and 5.17 months supply for houses. More ominously, compared to June the condo inventory grew 23.3% while that of homes blossomed 35.73%.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

District Sales: June 2010 [preliminary]

Well, I'm definitely back in the saddle again. I downloaded and have begun processing the District's sales data for June 2010. There's still much to do, but here are some preliminary data.

Average Sales Price

Number of Units Sold

MRIS July 2010 Sales Report: Preliminary data

MRIS released July's data for sales of existing homes in the District yesterday. On the surface, prices appear to have risen significantly. Key points [YoY]:

• Dollar volume was down 7.02%
• Average price was up 13.9%, median increased 11.4%.
• Unit sales volume [aggregate] was down 18.36%.
• Home unit sales fell 8.52%; 50 homes sold for more than $1MM!
• Condo unit sales were down a whopping 29.4% YoY although prices rose 16.26%; 9 sold for more than $1MM.

Sales prices were 94.46% of list. There is a 7.02 month supply of condos and 5.17 month supply of homes listed for sale.

I don't pay attention to the days on market metric since it can be gamed by listing agents. The significant data to me is:

• The condo inventory doubled since June [as measured by units listed divided by the number sold in the month].
• Unit sales are down.
• Dollar volume is down.

I think that since so many properties sold for more than $1MM [59 out of 529], the average price metric is almost meaningless as serving as an indicator of the market's future performance.

Analysis forthcoming.

MRIS June 2010 Housing Report

I'm back. My new venture's been launched and time [and the economy] will tell whether it's a success.

MRIS released its data for April, May, and June since my last post in March. Although it'll release its latest report for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District on August 10, I thought I'd start catching up by posting data for June; April and May will follow. Need I say it? Dollar and sales volume up, prices flat to negative. Not much has changed!



Key points in June's data:

• YoY, aggregate dollar volume increased 18.39% and the number of units sold increased 16.99%. However, average sales price rose a measly 1.19%.
• Condo dollar volume fell 1.18%. Home dollar volume leapt 29.55%.
• Condo sales volume increased 3.62%. Home sales volume grew 27.98%.
• Condo prices dropped 4.63%, while home prices were up 1.23%, essentially flat.

Interestingly, at June's sales rate there's a 5.7 months supply of condos and 3.81 months supply for houses. Both metrics imply a tight market, which makes the flat price movement even curiouser. Moreover, compared to May the condo inventory grew 9.75% while that of homes fell 17.06%.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

MRIS March 2010 Housing Report

Sorry for the long absence from this blog. I've been busy with a new project and it's been a huge time sink for me.

MRIS released its data for March signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District many days ago. Need I say it? Volume up, prices down.

Key points in March's data:

• YoY, aggregate dollar volume increased 24.94% and the number of units sold increased 35.09%. However, average sales price fell 7.51%.
  
• Condo dollar volume was slightly higher, up 4.83%. Home dollar volume, by comparison, was as high as a Wall Street liar's - er, "investment" banker's - bonus, up 41.48%.
  
• Condo sales volume increased 18.68%. Home sales volume popped upward like a CDS on a AAA-rated synthetic CDO, up 48.85%.
  
• Condo prices dropped like Lehman Brothers, down 11.67%, while home prices fell 4.95%.
  

Can you tell I just read Michael Lewis' "The Big Short"? Sophisticated investors, indeed.

At March's sales rate, there's a 7.41 months supply of condos and 4.67 months supply for houses. Which means that the market's soft for condos and hot for houses. I can attest to the latter. In my neighborhood, every house that has hit the market is under contract within a week.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

MRIS March 2010 Sales Report: Preliminary data

While I was in New Orleans this past weekend, MRIS released March's data for sales of existing homes in the District. Prices continue to fall. Key points [YoY]:

• Dollar volume up 24.94%
  
• Average price is down 7.51%, median is down 5.6%
  
• Unit sales volume [aggregate] is up 35.09%
• Home unit sales up 48.84%; 30 homes sold for more than $1MM.
  
• Condo unit sales are up 18.68% YoY, but prices fell 11.67% despite 12 condos selling for more than $1MM.
  

Sales prices were 92.67% of list, as in February [how likely is that?]. There is a 7.41 month supply of condos and 4.67 month supply of homes listed for sale.

Analysis forthcoming.