Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Initial July Sales

DC has just posted its July sales data. I've not had a chance to analyze it, but the initial data indicates the following distribution of sales for the 768 units that closed:

  • Condos: 337 units (43.9%)
  • Rowhouses: 210 units (27.3%)
  • SFH: 116 units (15.1%)
  • Semi-detached: 61 (7.9%)
  • Multifamily: 43 units (5.6%)

One highlight: for condos, this is the lowest share of monthly sales for the year, if not since January 2005.

I'll post more information (and maybe corrections) once I'have a chance to analyze the data.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

2005 Condo Flips: Cityline and Residences at Gallery Place

Here's sales data for condos flipped in 2005 at the Cityline at Tenleytown and Residences at Gallery Place. Five were flipped at Cityline and 10 at Residences. More may have been flipped through contract assignment prior to closing, but this is based on available public data.

The nominal profits were good except for the seller of Cityline #421, who flipped at a loss of $900; I have to imagine the net loss was much worse for that flipper once almost six months of carrying costs and the unit's closing costs are factored in. The average nominal profit at Cityline was $89,106; for Residences, it was $119,724. Average time to flip: 83 days for the former, 171 days for the latter. Cityline #535 wins the prize, flipping within 23 days for a profit of $124,543.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Selected 2005 Condo Flips

The 85 condo flips in 2005 tended to cluster around a few buildings. For example, five buildings accounted for almost half of all condos flipped in 2005:

  • 1401 Church Street Condominium, 1401 Church Street NW (6 units)
  • 2020 Lofts, 2020 12th Street NW (12 units)
  • Residences at Gallery Place, 777 7th Street NW (10 units)
  • Cityline, 4101 Albemarle NW (6 units)
  • The Clara Barton, 616 E Street NW (5 units)

And the nominal profits were good. The average nominal profit at 1401 Church St NW was $140,248; at 2020 12th Street NW, it was $127,861. Average time to flip: 135 days for the former, 66 days for the latter. See below.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Condo Flipping in DC (2005)

I analyzed DC sales data for 2005 to see how many condos were flipped and what profit was achieved. I'm still analyzing the data, but the initial results are below.

Of more than 5900 condo sales in DC in 2005, 85 were of condos being flipped. The data below, which does not include those condos purchased in 2005 and sold in 2006, shows the average and median purchase and flip prices, profit, and days on market (DOM).

Monday, August 07, 2006

Condo Flipping in DC

When discussing the condo market in DC, a key assumption is that much of the market's zeal has been driven by buyers who flipped their condos soon after - if not before - the closing date.

However, my analysis of DC 2006 sales data (January - June) could find only 20 instances - out of 2032 condo sales in 2006 - where a condo was resold, or flipped, soon after it had been purchased. In these 20 instances, flippers paid an average price of $379,581 for a condo and flipped it in 81.6 days for $442,058, netting an average nominal profit of $62,476.

The analysis was restricted to those units that had first closed in 2006 and had then been resold; units that had closed in 2005 and resold in 2006 were not included in this analysis, that will be the next step in the process.

While all but two owners made a nominal profit, it's hard to determine anyone achieved a real profit once carrying costs, transaction fees, and the time value of money are taken into account. For example, the owner of 4101 Albemarle St NW Unit: 635 made a nominal profit of $61,126, but the resale closed 160 days after the original purchase. A 6% real estate agent commission on the flip would cost $39,594, leaving approximately $21,500 to recover five months of carrying costs and, hopefully, with some remaining for a real profit.

Condos Flipped in DC in 2006

June Sales Data

In June 2006, 972 properties were sold in the District (see DCHomePrices.com).

Compared to June 2005, average and median prices increased 7.22% and 6.02% respectively. As in the past, condos constituted the largest share of the reported transactions, 452 units (46.5%) of 972. However, total units sold decreased 17% YoY, with the number of condos sold dropping 23.9%.

Six condo properties represented 21.5% of all condos that sold:

  • Rhapsody, 2120 Vermont NW (33 units)
  • Quincy Park, 1117 10th St NW (15 units)
  • Ventana 912 F St NW (11 units)
  • 555 Massachusetts NW (14 units)
  • Columbia Station, 3500 13th St NW (10 units)
  • Lofts 14 Two, 1400 Church NW (14 units)

June 2006 data

YoY data (2006/2005)

Average Sales Prices by Housing Type by Zip Code