Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Analysis of August MRIS Sales Data for DC

A constant refrain I hear is that while the DC condo market is tanking, the market for single family homes (SFH) is doing well. Is that true?

At first blush, MRIS's data for August SFH home sales in DC doesn't look too bad once condos are excluded. Except for two categories that experienced small drops - attached homes with 2 or less bedrooms and detached houses with 3 bedrooms - all housing categories experienced price increases in August YoY (see below). The average price for detached homes with 4 or more bedrooms went up 16.5% YoY!

MRIS's summary data doesn't look too good, but one assumes that's because it includes condos. However, further analysis shows that SFH homes are in trouble, too.

When all housing categories (again, condos excluded) are pooled together to gauge the overall market's pricing trend, it turns out that the weighted average price for SFH housing in DC went up only 0.75% YoY in August. And, comparing YoY sales volume, one finds that sales for detached homes were down 48.8% and that of attached homes was down 29.3%.

So the data really shows that for SFH homes, too, pricing momentum has stalled and demand has fallen off the cliff. It'll be interesting to see what September's data shows when it's released by MRIS within the next two weeks.

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