Sunday, September 10, 2006

Analysis of July Sales (Part I)

After posting DC July sales data to last Friday evening, I had a chance Saturday to begin my analysis of the data. At a glance, the data do appear to indicate that the DC real estate market is slowing down, at least in terms of transaction volume if not in terms of prices. This is the first time in 2006 that monthly data show YoY declines in sales of all types of housing units.

Several facts are immediately apparent:
  • In the aggregate, YoY transaction volume is down almost 35% although average and median prices have gone up.
  • For the first time since at least January 2005, condos constitute less than 45% of all units sold.
  • Across the board, YoY transaction volume is down for all types of housing units.

Please understand that my data includes new and existing homes so there may be some discrepancy between my data and that from other sources, such as MRIS, which only report sales of existing units. As I may have mentioned in previous posts, condos typically constitute approximately 50% of housing units sold in DC and given the number of new units closing each month, that may skew my data vice MRIS. However, I get my data from the DC government so I am collecting actual sales data.

MRIS showed that average prices for condos in DC declined 6.5% in July, but since my data include new and existing units, I have to assume sales of new units provided enough price support to show an aggregate 8% gain. However, the median price for condos did fall 1.9%.

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