Monday, November 20, 2006

Fortune article on economic impact of housing

An interesting and scary article appeared in Fortune earlier this month entitled "Can the economy survive the housing bust?". It starts:

Tucked away in the briefcase of Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., is a chart so scary she's hesitant to show it to investors. It plots the National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market index - a monthly measure of builder confidence - against the Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index, with a one-year lag.

It turns out that the mood of builders is a terrific stock market bellwether: The correlation between current builder confidence and future stock market returns over the past ten years is downright unnerving.

The chart is below.

Friday, November 10, 2006

MRIS October Housing Report: DC Experiences Significant Declines

MRIS' report on sales of existing homes in DC in October came out today and it presents sobering YoY data for the housing market in the District. Highlights of the report:

  • Dollar sales volume: -37.73%
  • Average price: -10.26%
  • Median price: -11.76%
  • Days on market: +103.13%
  • Total units sold: -30.61%
  • Average list price for solds: -7.4%

This is the first month in 2006 that both average and median prices have declined.

Average condo prices declined 8.41% and sales volume declined 20.14%. Are condos to blame for the state of the market? Further analysis of the data show that when condos are excluded:

  • Dollar sales volume: -43.38%
  • Average sales price: -18.4%
  • Total units sold: -38.91%

This indicates that entire market is suffering.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

DC 2006: Year to date sales

Through August 31, 2006, DC has recorded the sale of 6023 housing units (type by 2006 sales volume):

  • Condo: 2813 units
  • Rowhouse SFH: 1477 units
  • Detached SFH: 793 units
  • Semi-detached SFH: 511 units
  • Multi-family: 429 units

Note that there is some uncertainty whether properties DC lists as multi-family are not actually single family homes. I have a friend whose house is definitely a rowhouse yet the city records it as multi-family. Conversely, I'm aware of properties listed as rowhouses that have been serving as multi-family housing.

The table below provides average and median prices and sales volume for sales in DC, organized by zip code; the data include all types of housing units.

The tables below detail YTD average sales prices and sales volume by zip code for each type of housing unit.

August Sales by Type by Zip Code

OK, one more slice at August's data while I wait for DC to finish uploading September's data. Here are August average prices by zip code for condos and houses (rowhouses, detached and semi-detached).