Saturday, May 19, 2007

MRIS Housing Report: First Quarter 2007

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that sales of existing homes in DC rose 9.3%. Given NAR's reporting methodology, I didn't want to assume that the data reported for DC is really based on local data [I'm not a statistician, but NAR's explanation of their methodology doesn't lead me to believe DC was necessarily in their data sample]. Furthermore, NAR's report doesn't provide an indicator of the market's characteristics or underlying trends. So, using MRIS data, let's compare 1Q2007 / 1Q2006 sales of existing homes and condos, which should provide a broad base of comparison and help identify trends in the current DC market.

My summary of the market for 1Q2007 is:

  • Aggregate dollar volume, average prices, and transaction volumes are up YoY. MRIS data show that sales volume is up 9.84%; pretty close to NAR's report.
  • Sales volume of homes is down 3.06%, condos sales are up a whopping 25.14%.
  • The average price of a condo fell 4.55% while that of homes was up 14.6%.
  • Sales volume for 3 and 4 bedroom homes fell by at least 4.05%; 2 bedroom homes saw a 4.32% bump upwards.
  • Homes with 4 or more bedrooms, which I've previously labeled high end homes, are doing quite well. Average prices are up 23.66% despite a 4.05% drop in sales volume.
  • Homes have a dominant share in dollar volume while condos constitute more than half [52.12%, to be precise] of all units sold.

So what to make of all of this? Two key points:

  • As I've noted in previous posts, sales of high end homes are skewing data for home sales; these homes represented 31.78% of the dollar volume although they were only 16.52% of the unit sales. When high end homes are excluded from the analysis, average home prices are up 6.62% vice the 14.6% shown below.
  • While more condos are selling, they're selling for lower average prices.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

3 comments:

Bill said...

This is a great blog. Cheers to you for all of your fantastic work! Really.. Great job!

Anonymous said...

I agree. You won't get the comment/discussion volume an opinion blog does, but empirical data is far more useful. Keep up the great work!

Keith said...

Thanks for the kind words!