Monday, July 23, 2007

DC Sales: June 2007

I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in June 2007. Generally, I see a market in which fewer units are selling across the board when compared to the same month in 2006. Average and median prices are being strongly affected by sales of high end homes and condos, i.e., expensive homes are selling and, despite the relatively small size of that market segment, their high prices are pushing aggregate average and median prices higher.

State of the Market

In June 2007 the District recorded 704 residential sales, 7.8% fewer than the previous month. Unit sales were almost evenly split between condos and homes while, in terms of dollar volume, homes led 57.4% vice 42.6%.

Viewing the data at a District level, every ward had significantly lower unit sales YoY. Three wards experienced declines in average and median prices, an additional two had lower median prices. Chase Point condos continue to impact Ward 3, constituting 29.8% of sales in the ward with an average price of $1.28MM.

Condo sales also continue to dominate Wards 1 and 2. In Ward 1, 68% of sales were condos and in Ward 2, 85%.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of sales by sales price; 53.6% of recorded sales were priced $450,000 and lower.

Changes in the Market YoY

On the surface, condos appear to have bounced back strongly with a 12.5% increase in average price despite a 21.3% decline in unit sales volume. However, as discussed further below, when sales at Chase Point condos are excluded, average prices for condos increased by a much smaller 2.37% and aggregate average price growth is reduced to 1.63% from 5.09%. Both homes and condos experienced a sharp drop in sales volume and dollar volume fell 24.12%. As in May, fewer home sales were recorded in June for every housing category YoY.


Condos

I know I'm repeating myself, but the number of condos sold [existing and new] fell by 23.2% YoY. A number of new condo buildings are still coming online, too, including:

Those twelve buildings alone represent 25% of all condo sales recorded in June.

Chase Point's impact on the market is really interesting. Although its unit sales represent 4.7% of all condo sales in June, its effect on average prices was extraordinary. If its 17 sales are excluded from the analysis, the average condo price falls to $414,501 vice $455,603 [unadjusted]. Similarly, its exclusion lops off most of the increase in average price, cutting it from 12.52% to 2.37%, and cuts the increase in median price in half.

Single Family Homes

Although demand for single family housing is down, higher prices in some segments enabled positive growth in average and median prices. In a repeat of May's sales, detached and semi-detached homes had higher average and median prices, rowhouses were positive on median prices, and multi-family homes had lower average and median prices. In the aggregate, average prices were up 3.1% while median prices were up a smidge more than 5% on a 33% decrease in unit sales.

High end housing market is having an inordinate impact on the market. Of the 36 units that sold for more than $1.25MM in June, 26 were single family homes, 10 were condos; 9 of the 10 were Chase Point condos. Although those 26 homes were only 7.5% of all single family homes sold in June, they constituted [I really need a thesaurus] 21.3% of the dollar volume for homes.

Detailed Data

Aggregate by Zip Code

June 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Ward

June 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by ward.

Category by Zip Code

Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • Homes listed as multi-family are actually single family homes, but I maintain the multi-family classification to remain consistent with the District's recording system.
  • My analysis is based on District data that I've gathered.

Purchase the August DC Housing Prices Report, which includes a listing of all home sales recorded in June, for $5.00.


August 2007



2 comments:

pqresident said...

the links from The Beauregard down to The Sonata are broken. you used relative paths instead of absolute paths.

keep up the good work...great analysis. I'm linking your site to a post that will go up tomorrow on PQ Living (www.pqliving.com)

Keith said...

Thanks for the pointer. Blogger added its "value" to my URLs. Fixed. And thanks for the link!