Monday, September 10, 2007

DC Sales: July 2007 [Updated]

I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in July 2007. I was interested in seeing what this data would show given the rather robust July sales figures reported by MRIS. What I saw was somewhat muted. YoY, a larger number of condos sold, but for only slightly higher prices. Fewer homes sold, but sales at the higher end lifted average prices. Eighty homes and condos, 10.5% 10.4% of all recorded sales, sold for $1MM or more.

[Update]: Two things have happened since I reposted this morning:

  • I now have physical information [square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms] for almost every District property except for those that completed construction within the past year. Consequently, the sales listings I mention below have price per square foot for many - not all - of the properties discussed in this post. See below for more detail.
  • I found another District data error that's forced me to update many of the graphics and some of the text in this post. That $3.75MM home on Eastern Ave actually cost $375,000. The data error was large enough to affect average prices for the housing category [detached], the ward [4], and the zip code [20012].

State of the Market

In July 2007 the District recorded 769 residential sales, 2.53% more than the same month in 2006; this excludes the two outliers I've mentioned in previous posts. Unit sales were almost evenly split between condos and homes while, in terms of dollar volume, homes led 61.33% vice 38.67%.

Viewing the data at a District level, all but three wards had a decent month. Three wards experienced declines in average and median prices, an additional one had lower median prices. Three wards had lower sales volume. Interestingly, Ward 2 had a huge bump in volume yet average and median prices declined about 16.5%; Ward 8, too, had a nice increase in sales volume, but its median price fell 4.52%

Condo sales also continue to dominate Wards 1 and 2. In Ward 1, 64% of sales were condos and in Ward 2, 80%. Condos represented 64% of sales in Ward 8.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of July's recorded sales by sales price; 53.84% of recorded sales were priced $450,000 and lower. Of those, 61.6% were condos, 65.7% of all condo sales recorded.

Changes in the Market YoY

Average prices were up 5.65% in the aggregate; median prices were flat. Condos had significantly higher unit sales volume, but without similar impact on prices. While May and June had fewer home sales recorded in every housing category YoY, July did slightly better - fewer home sales in 3 of 4 categories YoY. However, the housing category that did well - multi-family converted to single - was only 3.5% of all sales recorded.

Condos

The number of condos sold [existing and new] rose by 14.45% YoY, but prices rose less than 3%. Sales in Wards 1 and 2 [Dupont Circle / Penn Quarter / Logan Circle] represented 54.6% of total condo sales, with 20.1% in Ward 1 and 34.5% in Ward 2 . A few condo buildings are still coming online as others sell their remaining inventory:

Those twelve buildings alone represent 20.4% of all condo sales recorded in June. I expect sales from 1010 Mass will begin appearing in August's data; it'll be interesting to see how that building fares.

Single Family Homes

Although overall demand for single family housing is down 7.3%, higher average prices in two segments [semi- and detached homes] enabled positive growth in aggregate average and median prices. Average prices rose 11.58% although median prices were up less that 1%. Wards 3 and 4 accounted for 71% of detached home sales; the majority of semi-detached home sales were in Wards 4 and 7 [22% and 30.5%, respectively].

Purchase the Data

For $5.00, you can purchase a listing of all July home and condo sales recorded in the District that were discussed in this post.

What's new? I've added new information in this month's listing [see below]:

  • Price per square foot
  • Square footage
  • The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit

[Update] Information is available for all homes and condos.

Note: I use the District's downloadable data, which usually has a 6-12 month lag; this means that the publicly available data doesn't include condos or homes completed within the past year. I'm using the District's appraisal data so the accuracy of my analysis is dependent upon the fidelity of the District's data.


July 2007 Sales Listings


Detailed Data

Aggregate by Zip Code

July 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Ward

July 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by ward.

Category by Zip Code



Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • Homes listed as multi-family are actually single family homes, but I maintain the multi-family classification to remain consistent with the District's recording system.
  • My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. Errors are always possible.

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