Sunday, November 11, 2007

MRIS October Housing Report: Stability?

MRIS released its report on October sales of existing homes and condos [those listed or sold by real estate agents] in the District this weekend. September's YoY data was jaw-droppingly bad, but October's shows that the effects of August's mortgage crackup may be lessening . Key YoY data points:

  • Dollar volume was up 3%
  • The average price was up 5.66%
  • The median price rose 4.73%
  • The number of units sold - transaction volume - was down 2.52%
  • Average days on market fell 4.62% to 62 days

In October we see:

  • Sales volume. Overall, down 2.52%. YoY, condo sales volume was up 5.65% and home sales volume dropped 10.16%. Sales volume was mostly negative across the board, the only bright spot being detached homes with 4+ bedrooms, which had a 10% increase in sales volume. Condos represented 52.37% of the units sold.
  • Dollar volume. In aggregate, up 3%. YoY, dollar volume was positive for both condos and homes. Homes with 2 or fewer bedrooms took it on the chin, experiencing a -44.47% fdecline. Condos constitute 40.66% of the dollar volume.
  • Average sales price. Overall, positive, growing 5.66% YoY. Condos fell 1.33% to $387,792 [despite positive unit sales growth] while homes increased 13.71% YoY to $622,384.
  • Days on market. DOM is 62 days. A closer look shows that more than 60% of all homes sold within 60 days, a performance metric that's been pretty consistent these past few months.
  • Inventory. Based on the month's transaction rates and active listings, there is a 6.83 month supply of condos, a 6.67% drop from September, while home inventories rose to a 8.23 month supply, a decrease of 14.74% from September. Before anyone starts popping the champagne corks, these inventory levels are 65.24% and 57.87% [condos and homes, respectively] higher than August's inventory levels and remain higher than at any point during the year prior to September.

Assuming that September's data reflected the August credit and mortgage meltdown, I suppose October's data may indicate that the market has regained its equilibrium, but inventories remain high.

Looking at the pricing trends chart [see below], it's beginning to look like prices in 2007 will be flat. At a glance, October's average prices are roughly the same as January's.

Although there was no change in transaction volume YoY for attached homes with 4+ bedrooms, their average price grew 19.71%; 8 of 45 sold were sold for more than $1MM.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price Trends: 2007

Average Sales Price Trends: Year over Year

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

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