Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Sales Heat Map: Zip Code 20005

As part of my continuous effort to understand what is selling where, I've begun analyzing 2007 residential sales per zip code per square. In other words, I've taken 2007 home and condo sales through August 2007 [the last full month of data I have in my database] and, for each zip code, determined sales for each square in the zip code.

For my first such analysis, I thought I'd look at zip code 20005, home to Logan Circle and part of historic Shaw. The area has undergone a lot of renovation and development in the past 10 years; I've reported on quite a few condos that have been built there since 2003 [Lofts 14, Lofts 14 Two, Saxon Court, etc.]. A good friend lives off of Logan Circle so I've spent a fair amount of time in the area in the past four years, which is striking because when I first lived in DC in the late 80s and early 90s, no one ventured to Logan Circle because it was considered a risky neighborhood.


All properties in the District - for that matter, everywhere in the US - are identified by the square and lot on which they are located. The map below shows the squares for zip code 20005 for which the District recorded sales through August 2007. For example, condos located on the 1400 block of Church St NW are on square 0209. For those who know the area, Whole Foods is on square 0210.


The district recorded 186 sales in zip code 20005. To be consistent with my previous analyses, I've excluded anything the District has not designated a home [rowhouse, detached, or semi-detached] or a condo, leaving 179 sales recorded through August 2007 [multifamily conversions are excluded because I cannot be certain they're truly single family homes]. It turns out that all 2007 sales for zip code 20005 have been condos; not one single family home has been sold in the zip code.

The chart below shows the distribution of sales in the area. As in previous analyses, more than half of the units sold [97 of 179, or 54.2%] were sold for $450,000 or less; $450,000 seems to be the magic number for the District.

According to the table below, square 0211 has the honor of having the highest average and median sales price recorded in the neighborhood, averaging $554/sq ft.

Total dollar volume for 2007 sales in 20005 is $82,103,001.

Heat Map

One thing I've always wanted to do is depict District sales using a heat map, i.e., using color to indicate price ranges on a spatial basis. My data is granular enough to allow me to 'heat map' the District on a per square basis. My challenge has been finding the right technology to do this at an affordable price using my limited skills. Fortunately, Google Maps offers a solution that I can use without having to become a AJAX/PHP/Javascript coder. The interactive map below shows sales data for zip code 20005. I emphasize interactive because you can click on an icon on the map below and its data will be displayed; you can move and pan the map, too, You do not have to leave this site.

The legend at right explains the colors used for each pin on the map. For example, a yellow pin on a square means the average price for the square is between $551,000 and $650,000. You'll get the exact data when you click the pin.

View Larger Map

I'd appreciate feedback on whether using this type of map is helpful.


Anonymous said...

As a renter (and a potential buyer) in 20005, I think this is a great resource. I think I know the neighborhood pretty well but even I was surprised by the info on the map. 20005 is expensive but there are pockets of affordability in the neighborhood. For example, what's in block 315?

Keith said...

Sales in square 0315 were at two addresses: 1115 12th St NW and 1125 12th St NW.

I noticed 1125 12th St NW unit #1 is being auctioned next Tuesday at 10:46AM. See Alex Cooper's web site. It had been purchased for $370,000 in January 2007. It's neighbor, unit #2, appears to have been taken back by the bank, which bought it back for $238,000 in August after it had been first purchased in October 2006 for $370,000. That's a 36% haircut.

Thanks to Google, I see many of the building's units are being advertised as rentals to convention goers.

bryc3 said...

Squares 0281 and 0282 (adjacent to 0315) contain very large public housing complexes for senior citizens and persons with disabilities. As a renter in 0282, and a student of the acute real estate market here, I believe the presence of these buildings amidst the shiny new condo buildings going up everywhere else has helped keep prices lower here.

This is a case where the numbers don't always tell the whole story. We love our neighborhood AND our neighbors, but I'm not naive enough to suggest that these couple of blocks are for everyone. It's a good lesson in making sure you get a feel for an entire neighborhood before you consider making a purchase.

Anonymous said...

This is nice resource, thank you, although the sharp differences between the properties in this area make average sales prices deceptive.

I've been house hunting in this area, and it's hard to find comparables since there are brand new fancy buildings next to old run down ones.

Anonymous said...

Maybe this is what you looking for. Click on the left side under heat maps and select unit size to view color coded heat map of rents overlaid on Google earth satellite map. This is a grad student. Said he would help anyone that is interested doing one.

Craigstats SF

Keith said...

Very cool, precisely what I'd like to do.

Anonymous said...

Love this resource! I actually am one of the purchasers in 0315 back in August 07 - bought in 1115 12th and love the condo. Bought it for my son while he is in college, but will then use it as a pied a terre later. It's a nice building.