I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in September 2007. When I looked at August's data, I asked "is that a train headed our way?" Remember that MRIS' data was of contract value signed and the District's data is of sales recorded. Given that both went negative in September, I assume this means that contract signings and closings fell apart in late August and September, all of it most likely due to August's credit crunch and the associated market uncertainties. The market's soured to the point that some new condo developments, e.g. Senate Square and McGill Row, have gone apartment.
State of the Market
In September 2007 the District recorded 501 residential sales, 28.63% less than the same month in 2006. More than half of all units sold were condos while, in terms of dollar volume, homes led 57.29% vice 42.71%, both consistent with past months' results.
Viewing the data at a District level, four wards had a decent month in terms of pricing. Four wards experienced declines in average and median prices. However, all but one ward had lower sales volume, some of it quite significant [e.g., -40.17% in Ward 1]. Ward 3 had the highest percentage increase in average price, 10.54%.
Condo sales continue to dominate Wards 1 and 2. In Ward 1, 62.9% of sales were condos and in Ward 2, 88.68%.
Distribution of Sales
The chart below shows the distribution of September's recorded sales by sales price.
Changes in the Market YoY
Average prices were down 2.51% in the aggregate, median prices down 7.69%. Sales volume collapsed, down almost 28.63%; condos fell 31.36% and homes declined 25.24%. However, average home prices rose despite lower sales volume.
The number of condos sold [existing and new] fell 31.36% YoY while prices [average and median] declined 13.74% and 10.96%, respectively . Sales in Wards 1 and 2 [Dupont Circle / Penn Quarter / Logan Circle] represented 51.7% of total condo sales. No new condo buildings have come online, but others continue to sell their remaining inventory:
- Logan Station (1210 R St NW): 5 units
- The Whitman (910 M St NW): 3 units
- The Artisan (915 E St NW): 3 units
- 555 Mass (555 Massachusetts Ave NW): 3 units
- The Archbold (2725 39th St NW): 3 units
- Christopher Condos (3101-3111 Naylor Rd SE): 4 units
- Brandywine Crossing (717 - 725 Brandywine St SE): 4 units
Significantly missing from this list is 1010 Mass. What's going on with that building? It looks like its completed.
Single Family Homes
Although overall demand for single family housing is down a whopping 25.24%, aggregate average prices rose 7.05% while median prices were down 4.76%. All categories of houses had large declines in sales volume, but the significant price gains for detached homes carried the segment. Wards 3 and 4 accounted for 69.8% of detached home sales. Ward 3 has the honor of having the highest average and median prices in the District.
Purchase the Data
For $5.00, you can purchase a listing of the September home and condo sales recorded in the District discussed in this post. Information in the listing includes [see below]:
- Sale price and sale date
- Unit number [if a condo and if available]
- Price per square foot
- Square footage
- The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit
Note: I use the District's downloadable data, which usually has a 6-12 month lag, meaning that the data doesn't include condos or homes completed within the past year. Data may not be available for all properties. My analysis is dependent upon the completeness and fidelity of the District's appraisal data.
|September 2007 Sales Listings|
Aggregate by Zip Code
September 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.
Aggregate by Ward
September 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by ward.
Category by Zip Code
Category by Ward
- Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
- This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
- My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
- My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.