Monday, December 10, 2007

DC Sales: September 2007

I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in September 2007. When I looked at August's data, I asked "is that a train headed our way?" Remember that MRIS' data was of contract value signed and the District's data is of sales recorded. Given that both went negative in September, I assume this means that contract signings and closings fell apart in late August and September, all of it most likely due to August's credit crunch and the associated market uncertainties. The market's soured to the point that some new condo developments, e.g. Senate Square and McGill Row, have gone apartment.

All data has been uploaded for viewing on DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com

State of the Market

In September 2007 the District recorded 501 residential sales, 28.63% less than the same month in 2006. More than half of all units sold were condos while, in terms of dollar volume, homes led 57.29% vice 42.71%, both consistent with past months' results.

Viewing the data at a District level, four wards had a decent month in terms of pricing. Four wards experienced declines in average and median prices. However, all but one ward had lower sales volume, some of it quite significant [e.g., -40.17% in Ward 1]. Ward 3 had the highest percentage increase in average price, 10.54%.

Condo sales continue to dominate Wards 1 and 2. In Ward 1, 62.9% of sales were condos and in Ward 2, 88.68%.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of September's recorded sales by sales price.

Changes in the Market YoY

Average prices were down 2.51% in the aggregate, median prices down 7.69%. Sales volume collapsed, down almost 28.63%; condos fell 31.36% and homes declined 25.24%. However, average home prices rose despite lower sales volume.

Condos

The number of condos sold [existing and new] fell 31.36% YoY while prices [average and median] declined 13.74% and 10.96%, respectively . Sales in Wards 1 and 2 [Dupont Circle / Penn Quarter / Logan Circle] represented 51.7% of total condo sales. No new condo buildings have come online, but others continue to sell their remaining inventory:

Significantly missing from this list is 1010 Mass. What's going on with that building? It looks like its completed.

Single Family Homes

Although overall demand for single family housing is down a whopping 25.24%, aggregate average prices rose 7.05% while median prices were down 4.76%. All categories of houses had large declines in sales volume, but the significant price gains for detached homes carried the segment. Wards 3 and 4 accounted for 69.8% of detached home sales. Ward 3 has the honor of having the highest average and median prices in the District.

Purchase the Data

For $5.00, you can purchase a listing of the September home and condo sales recorded in the District discussed in this post. Information in the listing includes [see below]:

  • Address
  • Sale price and sale date
  • Unit number [if a condo and if available]
  • Price per square foot
  • Square footage
  • The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit


Note:
I use the District's downloadable data, which usually has a 6-12 month lag, meaning that the data doesn't include condos or homes completed within the past year. Data may not be available for all properties. My analysis is dependent upon the completeness and fidelity of the District's appraisal data.


September 2007 Sales ListingsAdd to Cart


Detailed Data

Aggregate by Zip Code

September 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Ward

September 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by ward.

Category by Zip Code


Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
  • My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

3 comments:

captain.jim.t.kirk said...

hey Keith
Good Job man
what clear presentation.
Great work ...really impressed

i am a legal immigrant and have just got my permanent residency card. i was legally present here for the last 9 years (as a student and as high skilled worker). I spent 60 thousand dollars on rent itself for the past 6 years here in DC. Now, I know you would call me a dunce, missing out on a great boom (missed out on stocks in 98-2000 and now in real estate). Yes, I am.

But what makes me happy visiting your blog is this: I don’t have to depend on a real estate company or a broker to tell me the price anymore…

Let me tell u a instance…a year ago. a guy that I know from church saw my interest in getting a house. He and his assistant sent me some emails about a new development near Navy Yard. After a few emails, I asked them ...”hey what is the average price going in this area?” I did not get any response so far.

Thank you so much for your wonderful blog

Shalom

captain.jim.t.kirk said...

hey Keith
Good Job man
what clear presentation.
Great work ...really impressed

i am a legal immigrant and have just got my permanent residency card. i was legally present here for the last 9 years (as a student and as high skilled worker). I spent 60 thousand dollars on rent itself for the past 6 years here in DC. Now, I know you would call me a dunce, missing out on a great boom (missed out on stocks in 98-2000 and now in real estate). Yes, I am.

But what makes me happy visiting your blog is this: I don’t have to depend on a real estate company or a broker to tell me the price anymore…

Let me tell u a instance…a year ago. a guy that I know from church saw my interest in getting a house. He and his assistant sent me some emails about a new development near Navy Yard. After a few emails, I asked them ...”hey what is the average price going in this area?” I did not get any response so far.

Thank you so much for your wonderful blog

Shalom

Anonymous said...

A real housing economists views:

Start a new thread with this.

Center for Economic and Policy Research

http://www.cepr.net/component/option,com_issues/task,view_issue/issue,11/Itemid,22/

It it the "Housing Bubble Starts to Burst" video link of June 7th.

http://mediacow.tv/node/166

CEPR's Baker also quoted in CNNMoney story:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/12/news/economy/builders/index.htm?postversion=2007121308

CondoCritic