Sunday, June 24, 2007

DC Sales: April 2007 (Sales by Ward)

Sales by wards provides another insight to the state of the District's housing market.

  • Average prices grew in 5 of the 8 wards (2-5, 7).
  • Median prices rose in all but 2 wards (2-7)
  • Sales volume was negative to flat in three wards (1, 5, 7)

Prices in Ward 8 continue to deteriorate. Ward 1 slid into negative territory after teetering on the brink in March.

Excluding new condos affected prices in Wards 2 and 3, but not enough to tip them into the red. In Ward 2, their exclusion had a negligible effect; in Ward 3, their exclusion reduced average prices by $50,000 and median prices by almost $60,000. YoY sales volume was affected: it went negative in Ward 2 (from +27 to -12) and was shaved in Ward 3 from +22 to +2. Removing new condos from the analysis reined in Ward 8's explosive growth in sales volume, cutting it from +148.3% to +13.79%, showing that Christopher Condos and Brandywine Crossing skewed the numbers. On a positive note, that exclusion also trimmed the negative average and median price changes YoY for the ward.

Aggregate Sales by Ward YoY

The following tables show the YoY aggregate sales data for each ward in April 2007.

Sales by Category

The following tables show the average and median prices and sale volume for the month for each housing category in each ward in the District.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

DC Sales: April 2007

It's the second day of summer and I've finished collecting and scrubbing [correcting] full value residential sales the District recorded in April 2007; the data have been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com.

As I mentioned earlier, I had to delete the $9MM home (917 M St NW). I also changed the $7.5MM condo to $759,000 and the $3.07MM condo to $370,000; I didn't make the changes on a whim, those are the prices the Recorder of Deeds shows involved in the transactions.

State of the Market

In April 2007, 766 residential sales were recorded by the District. Once again the majority of sales, 54.44%, were condos; the market's preference for condos continues. However, given their lower average prices as compared to houses, the condo dollar volume was 47.71% of the total dollar volume of $402.5MM.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of sales by sales price; 83% of recorded sales were $750,000 and lower.

Changes in the Market YoY

Compared to April 2006, aggregate average and median prices were up 5.55% and 2.44% respectively. Aggregate unit and dollar volume jumped 16.41% and 22.88%, respectively.

Condos

The number of condos sold [existing and new] increased by almost 28% YoY, average prices were up slightly less than 4%, while median prices were down almost 3%. A number of new condo buildings are still coming online, too, including:

  • Columbia Residences (2425 L St NW): 9 units
  • Jefferson Row (1830 Jefferson Pl NW): 13 units
  • The Whitman (910 M St NW): 9 units
  • The Artisan (915 E St NW): 8 units
  • The Sonata (301 Massachusetts Ave NW): 5 units
  • Christopher Condos (3101-3107 Naylor Rd SE): 19 units
  • The Rhapsody (2120 Vermont Ave NW): 5 units
  • Chase Point (4301 Military Rd NW): 20 units
  • The Fedora (1451 Belmont Rd NW): 5 units
  • Brandywine Crossing (717 - 725 Brandywine St SE): 20 units

Those ten buildings alone represent almost 25% of all condo sales recorded in April. Excluding these new condos has a significant impact:

  • Average and median prices for condos fall 3.6% and 5.5% YoY. In the aggregate, average prices grow only 4.78% while median prices are flat, +0.12%.
  • Unit sales for condos drop 7%. Aggregate unit sales dip .91%.
  • Aggregate dollar volume grows slightly less than 4%. It drops 10.4% for condos instead of the 32.73% increase when new condos are included.

Essentially, the market is less robust once new condo sales are excluded from the analysis.

Single Family Homes

Detached homes were the market's star and driver in April. All metrics - average/median price, unit sales, and dollar volume - soared, up at least 30% in each, most spectacularly up a whopping 78% in dollar volume. The negative to slightly positive metrics for the other housing types, however, resulted in a less stellar, but still strong, market for single family homes. In the aggregate, average and median prices were up about 10% on a 5% increase in unit sales. It'll be interesting to see what happens should sales for detached homes go cold.

Detailed Data

April 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Zip Code

Category by Zip Code


Caveats:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District in April as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there will be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide an indicator of trends in the District that could be useful.
  • I classify multi-family homes as single family homes because I've found that homes that once were multi-family which have been converted to single family use have not been reclassified as such by the District. I may be painting too broad a brush here, but I can live with it.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

April data uploaded

Data for home and condo sales recorded in the District in April 2007 have been uploaded and are available on DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com .
 
In a nutshell, 768 sales were recorded, of which 417 were condos. One house was recorded as selling for more than $9MM and, since I couldn't get better information on that transaction, I've deleted it; the house is in an area where $9MM homes are not the norm. I was able to correct a $3MM sale to $370,000.
 
Analysis forthcoming.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Condo Sales: Dupont Renaissance

I've been following the tale of the Dupont Renaissance (located here) since I returned to DC in early 2004. Since the construction blocked part of the street where I park my car when I go to the gym, I watched the development unfold for the better part of two years.

Originally a two story apartment building, it was renovated by Adams Investment Group; two floors were added to the two-story building during the renovation, delivering 16 condos in December 2005. Dupont Renaissance was a pretty small project compared to other projects in the District in the period. However, one reason I followed it - besides the parking inconvenience - was that it served as a microcosm of the condo bubble [see below].

Dupont Renaissance 1704 T St NW, DC, 20009

Sales through April 2007

The District recorded 19 sales transactions (including three flips) through the end of April 2007.

As the table above shows, 14 condos closed in December 2005 and another in February 2006 [a flip]. Five units were for sale as soon as the hurricane fences came down. By the end of March 2006, 11 units were for sale. In other words, more than 2/3 of all units sold were for sale again within three months of delivery. The last time I checked, about two weeks ago, there are still 7 lock boxes hanging on the fence. If one assumes that all occupant/owners have taken advantage of the District's $60,000 homestead exemption, then only 6 of the 16 units are occupied by their owners.

Information on individual sales can be found at DCCondoPrices.com.

Rental / Resale Activity

Two units are listed for sale in the MLS:

  • DC6398095. Unit #103: 1/1.
  • DC6394233. Unit #203: 1/1. "2 YEARS CONDO FEE PAID BY SELLER"

Both units closed in December 2005. I first collected data for this post in late May; since then, unit #203 lowered its price $5000 to its current price of $450,000.

Three units have been flipped by their "investors":

Unit #101 flipped in February 2006, two months after it first closed. Unit #204 flipped in September 2006; it, too, first closed in December 2005. Ditto unit #102, which was flipped in April 2007. Originally offered for $529,000, that "investor" settled for $497,000. If nothing else, these three flips show the profit curve has a negative slope, omitting any consideration of carrying and transaction costs.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

MRIS May Housing Report: Spring is a bust

While I was on vacation, MRIS was kind enough to release its report on May's sales of existing homes and condos in the District, those listed or sold by real estate agents. In short, May's YoY data show declines across all metrics [see figure below]:

  • Dollar volume was down 11.44%
  • The average price fell 7.08%
  • The median price was flat, declining 0.24%
  • The number of units sold - transaction volume - was down about 4.69%
  • Average days on market increased 22% to 61 days

Condos maintained their lead over homes in terms of units sold, homes led in dollar volume. In May we see:

  • Sales volume. Overall, down 4.69%. Condo sales volume was up 5.1% YoY, but home sales volume dropped 13.98%. All categories of single family homes saw a decline in sales volume: -20.69% for 2 bedroom homes; -18.44% for 3 bedroom homes; and -5.19% for 4+ bedroom homes.
  • Dollar volume. In aggregate, down a whopping 11.44%. The sales volume story repeated: condos up (+4.15%), homes down (-20.19%). Lower dollar volume for all home sizes.
  • Average sales price. Again, down: 7.08%. Average prices for condos relaxed [I need a thesaurus] .94% to $415,915, while homes dropped 7.22% YoY to $658,192.
  • Days on market. Yes, on average the DOM grew to 61 days, but a closer look shows that 2/3 of all homes sold within 60 days.
  • Inventory. Based on May's transaction rates and active listings, there is a 4.35 month's supply of condos, an increase of 9.27% over April, while home inventory's fell 8.06% to 4.84 months.

So what to make of all of this?

The most important conclusion I come to is that the Spring selling season is off to an inauspicious start. April's data was uninspiring and May's should make a seasoned real estate agent Google the nearest bar capable of mixing a stiff dry martini [three olives, please]. Condos are holding their own, but homes are getting squishy. The market was no friend of two and four bedroom homes; three bedroom homes had positive growth in average sales prices although the market favored the detached variety for unit sales and dollar volume. Of note is that for the first time in a while, high end homes (+4 bedrooms) had been tamed.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

I'm back

I've returned from Canada and have started looking at MRIS' May existing home sales data. At first glance, it looks like average prices for condos are flat, home prices have fallen, and transaction volume is flat. Average prices for three-bedroom homes are up while those with 2 or less and 4 or more have declined YoY.
 
More later.
 
 

Friday, June 08, 2007

Au Canada

I'm off to Quebec City this evening for a few days so I won't be adding any new posts until I return. I expect by then MRIS's data for May existing home sales will be available. I also plan to post about a condo building that, to me, was the poster child of the real estate "investor" craze that just ended: the Dupont Renaissance. Sixteen units built, 14 closed the first month, 12 went on sale the next.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

DC Sales: March 2007 (Sales by Ward)

Sales by wards provides another insight to the state of the District's housing market: while unit sales volume is higher YoY in every ward save Ward 5, average and median prices fell in at least half of the wards.

Wards 1-3 were the only wards that saw increases in both average and median prices, although Ward 1's increase in average price is really a flat line. Wards 4-8 are negative YoY in median prices and, of those 5 wards, only Ward 7 had positive growth in average prices

Looking at the data again, I find that 65% of all March condo sales in the District were recorded in Wards 1-3. Given that the distribution of home sales was roughly evenly distributed among the eight wards, it seems obvious that condo sales played a significant role in supporting the growth in average and median prices in Wards 1-3.

Considering that my previous post showed aggregate sales volume grew 17.27% YoY, it seems rather ominous that half the District's wards are experiencing declining average and/or median prices.

Aggregate Sales by Ward YoY

The following tables show the YoY aggregate sales data for each ward in March 2007.


Sales by Category

The following tables show the average and median prices and sale volume for each housing category in each ward in the District.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

DC Sales: March 2007

I've finished collecting and scrubbing [correcting] full value residential sales the District recorded in March 2007; the data have been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com.

State of the Market

Caveat: Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents. Also, this analysis is of sales recorded by the District in March as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there will be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide an indicator of trends in the District that could be useful.

In March 2007, 842 residential sales were recorded by the District. The majority of sales, 52.61%, were condos. However, given their lower average prices as compared to houses, the condo dollar volume was 45.33% of the total dollar volume of $437.6MM.

Changes in the Market YoY

Compared to March 2006, aggregate average prices were robust, up 7.81%; median prices were negative; and unit and dollar volume jumped 17.27% and 26.43%, respectively.

Condos

The number of condos sold increased by almost 40% YoY, average prices were up slightly more than 9%, while median prices were down almost 1%. A number of new condo buildings are still coming online, too, including:

  • Columbia Residences (2425 L St NW): 12 units
  • The Alta (1133 14th St NW): 6 units
  • The Whitman (910 M St NW): 17 units
  • The Artisan (915 E St NW): 17 units
  • The Sonata (301 Massachusetts Ave NW): 13 units
  • Christopher Condos (3101-3107 Naylor Rd SE): 14 units
  • The Rhapsody (2120 Vermont Ave NW): 5 units

Those seven buildings alone represent almost 20% of all condo sales recorded in March. Excluding them from the analysis reduces the growth in average prices for condos by 1.73% to 7.6%, but tips the median price even further into negative territory, to a 4.96% drop in median price.

Single Family Homes

Single family homes fell almost 1% in unit volume while increasing 10.4% in dollar volume. Average and median prices were a mixed bag for single family homes. Average prices were up 11.23% while median prices were FLAT - 0% growth YoY. All categories of home had increases in average prices, while only multi-family homes had significant median price growth YoY. Semi-detached and multi-family homes had precipitous drops in sales volume; rowhouses and detached homes had 6-10% increases in sales volume.

As I've previously noted: I classify multi-family homes as single family homes because I've found that homes that once were multi-family which have been converted to single family use have not been reclassified as such by the District. I may be painting too broad a brush here, but I can live with it.

Detailed Data

March 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Zip Code

Category by Zip Code



March sales data uploaded

Data for home and condo sales recorded in the District during March 2007 have been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis is forthcoming.