I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in October 2007. Generally, sales volume in the District is down significantly, condos are tanking, yet single family homes continue to see price appreciation despite falling sales volume. While Case-Shiller shows that existing home prices in the DC metropolitan area have fallen, my data imply that District home prices are faring well. It's important to note that Case-Shiller excludes condos from its analysis.
I hope each of you has a healthy and prosperous 2008! Happy New Year!
State of the Market
In October 2007 the District recorded 384 residential sales, 44.59%% less than the same month in 2006. For the first time that I can remember, more than half of all units sold were homes. Moreover, homes trounced condos in dollar volume, 62.83% compared to 37.17% of total dollar volume.
All but three wards had a decent month in terms of prices. Only one ward experienced declines in average and median prices while two others had lower average or median prices. However, all wards had lower sales volume, some of it quite significant [e.g., -62.58% in Ward 2]. Ward 3 had the highest percentage increase in average price, 15.57%.
Condo sales continue to dominate Wards 1 and 2. In Ward 1, 74.6% of sales were condos and in Ward 2, 77%.
Distribution of Sales
The chart below shows the distribution of October's recorded sales by sales price.
Changes in the Market YoY
In the aggregate, average prices were up 8.8% and median prices increased 1.69%. Sales volume collapsed, down 44.59%; condos fell 52.55% and homes declined 34.22%. Rising home prices counterbalanced falling condo prices.
The number of condos sold [existing and new] fell 52.55% YoY while prices [average and median] declined 7.96% and 0.67%, respectively. One factor that may affect the YoY comparison is that a number of new buildings were coming online in October 2006, including Columbia Residences, the Alta, the Rhapsody, Georgetown Heights, and the Fedora, among others. Sales in Wards 1 and 2 [Dupont Circle / Penn Quarter / Logan Circle] represented 50.54% of total condo sales. No new condo buildings have come online, but others continue to sell their remaining inventory:
- Logan Station (1210 R St NW): 1 unit
- Kenyon Square (1390 Kenyon NW): 7 units
- The Artisan (915 E St NW): 4 units
- 555 Mass (555 Massachusetts Ave NW): 3 units
- The Beauregard (2100 11th St NW): 1 unit
- The Sonata (301 Massachusetts Ave NW): 2 units
- Chase Point (4301 Military Rd NW): 2 units
- Christopher Condos (3101-3111 Naylor Rd SE): 2 units
- Brandywine Crossing (717 - 725 Brandywine St SE): 1 units
Single Family Homes
Although overall demand for single family housing is down 34.22%, aggregate average prices rose 18.27% and median prices grew 6.54%. All categories of houses had large declines in sales volume, but the significant price gains for detached homes again carried the segment; although they comprised less than 30% of units sold, detached homes represented 47.83% of dollar volume for homes. Ward 3 has the honor of having the highest average and median prices in the District.
Purchase the Data
For $5.00, you can purchase a listing of the October home and condo sales recorded in the District discussed in this post. Information in the listing includes [see below]:
- Sale price and sale date
- Unit number [if a condo and if available]
- Price per square foot
- Square footage
- The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit
Note: I use the District's downloadable data, which usually has a 6-12 month lag, meaning that the data doesn't include condos or homes completed within the past year. Data may not be available for all properties. My analysis is dependent upon the completeness and fidelity of the District's appraisal data.
|October 2007 Sales Listings|
Aggregate by Zip Code
October 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.
Aggregate by Ward
October 2007 average and median sales prices and unit volume by ward.
Category by Zip Code
Category by Ward
- Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
- This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
- My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
- My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.