Tuesday, December 30, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: October 2008 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for October 2008 was released today. By now the gloomy report has been trumpeted on the web and will be the lead story on tonight's network news shows. It "shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007." As stated in the NY Times:

“October was clearly the free-fall month,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Everything was going against us in October, without exception.”

October's report shows the DC area's market continues to decline. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - fell again. Effectively, the DC area's home price index is now between that of May and June 2004. If it's any consolation, things are worse elsewhere:

Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Monday, December 22, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: September 2008 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for September 2008 was released while I was in Australia [yes, I'm that far behind in current events]. It "shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007."

“The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004. As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down 21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%.”

While August's report gave the impression that DC homes prices may have hit bottom, September's shows the market has resumed its decline. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - increased significantly. Effectively, the DC area's home price index has fallen to slightly above June 2004, but below July 2004.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Friday, December 12, 2008

MRIS November Housing Report

This past Wednesday, MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condo sales in November 2008. Compared to November 2007, unit sales and dollar volume tanked, average and median sales prices were down. Key YoY data points:

What I'm seeing in the data:

  • The condo market fell off the cliff: unit sales and dollar volume fell 40.95% and 38.12% YoY, respectively. Home sales were no better: unit sales down 21.78%, dollar volume down 32.45%
  • Average prices for condos rose 4.78% while those for homes fell 13.64%.
  • Comparing November to January 2008, the aggregate average price in the District has fallen 8.24%. The average price for a condo is down 8.61% for the year while home prices have fallen 10.09%.
  • Based on November's sales volume, there are now a whopping 11.58 months of inventory for condos and 11.34 months for homes, a 32.24% increase for condos and a 31.38% decrease for homes from October. Compared to November 2007, the number of condos listed is essentially flat, up 0.19%, while home listings grew 15.72%.
  • Overall, the unit sales volume in November was the lowest for the year. That was true for condos, too.
  • November also had the lowest total dollar volume for any month in 2008. Dollar volume for condos and homes were the lowest of the year.

2008 Trends

Average Sales Price

Change in Sales Price

Unit Sales Volume

Dollar Sales Volume

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

MRIS November 2008 Sales Report: Preliminary data

Yikes!

I don't know what else to say. Today MRIS released November's data for sales of existing homes in the District and it's awful. Probably the worst YoY performance I've ever seen. Key points:

  • Dollar volume down 34.36%
  • Unit sales volume [aggregate] down 31.51%
  • Home unit sales down 21.78%
  • Condo unit sales down 40.95%

At that sales rate, the condo market almost has a year's supply listed for sale.

Analysis forthcoming.

I'm Back

I've returned from Oz - it was a fantastic trip. Very nice people, amazing sights, e.g., seeing 11 cockatoos on the beach at Trinity Beach early one morning [the one time I didn't have a camera!].

I've started processing sales data for July through September and hope to have it uploaded in the next day or so. Broadly speaking, there were about 2000 sales recorded in those three months, about 50/50 condos/homes. Given the span of time and volume of data involved, I expect to offer an analysis, but not in the format I've used in the past.

Welcome to all the new readers of my blog from Chicago!

Friday, November 14, 2008

Australia Fair

I'll be away for the next three weeks. I'm going to Australia [Sydney, Cairns, and Melbourne] to fulfill a long-term desire to visit the country and to celebrate my [significant milestone] birthday. I do not expect to post any entries while I'm away. If I do, please chastise me severely.

Preparing for Oz

Before we go, I'm heading to the Grooming Lounge to ensure I make a proper appearance as a representative of the USA and the District of Columbia. No Ugly American I!

I estimate our total travel time from DC to Sydney will be 30 hours, including a minimum 14.5 hours on the plane from LA to Sydney. To make it much more tolerable, I've saved my American Express points for years in order to get two first class seats. Can you believe each seat retails for $25,000?!?

While there, my social secretary has informed me we're going to see Priscilla, visit the penguins, and avoid the jellyfish [my friend Dawn is fond of telling me about the twenty things that can kill you in Australia].

See you in three weeks!

Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi!

Monday, November 10, 2008

MRIS October Housing Report: Condos still hurt

Today, MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condo sales in October 2008. Compared to October 2007, unit sales were down, dollar volume was slightly negative, and average sales prices were up. A more detailed look at the data tells me the condo market is still hurting: unit sales and dollar volume are significantly lower YoY. Sales price as a percent of listing price fell 2.46% to 92.67%, i.e., the average sale price was 7.33% less than original asking price.

Key YoY data points:

What I'm seeing in the data:

  • Monthly sales measured in unit sales [October compared to September] were a mixed bag. Condo sales fell 5.67%, homes rose 7.44%. Similarly, condo dollar volume fell 15.25% and homes increased 25.95%.
  • The number of units going under contract in October YoY fell 10.78%. For condos, the number fell 24.69%, worse than September. Unit sales volume for homes was up 4.52%.
  • While dollar volume YoY was slightly negative, that for condos dove 19.95%. Homes, however, jumped 13.36%.
  • Comparing October to January 2008, the aggregate average price in the District is flat, up a mere 0.41%. The average price for a condo is down 3.41% for the year while, for homes, has barely budged, up 0.39%.
  • Based on October's sales volume, there's [are?] now 8.75 months of inventory for condos and 8.63 months for homes, an 11.22% increase for condos and a 5.74% decrease for homes from September. Compared to October 2007, the number of condos listed is down 3.49% and up 9.63% for homes.

2008 Trends

Average Sales Price

Change in Sales Price

Unit Sales Volume

Dollar Sales Volume

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Sunday, November 02, 2008

DC Sales: June 2008

I've finished my analysis of full value residential sales the District recorded in June 2008. Key points:

  • Compared to June 2007, sales volume was down 7.14% and dollar volume was 7.88% lower.
  • As in May, Old City II led the District in sales, accounting for 19.47% of units sold and 16.53% of dollar volume, far higher than any other neighborhood in the District.
  • Condos dominated sales in Wards 1, 2, 6, and 8.
  • Fifty three (!) homes sold for more than $1MM; 8.32% of units sold accounted for 27.4% of the month's dollar volume.

Each month I offer a copy of that month's sales listings for $5.00. However, I'm offering June's sales listing for free. Please see below.

All data have been uploaded for viewing on DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com.

State of the Market

In June 2008 the District recorded 637 residential sales. In general, the average price fell a mere 0.79% and the median price fell 6.23%. The condo market is still suffering: unit sales are down 10.33% YoY and dollar volume down 16.15%. Single family home sales were slightly better - average prices rose 2.49%, the median price fell 5.45%, the number of homes sold fell 3.46%, and the dollar volume declined 1.05% - but it's all a matter of degree.

All but one ward, Ward 6, had lower unit sales YoY. Wards 1 and 8 had higher average prices, Wards 7 and 8 had higher median prices. Ward 8 again had the steepest drop in sales volume, dropping almost 42%.

Condo sales ruled Ward 2 [again]: 83.89%.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of June's recorded sales by sales price.

Condos

The number of condos sold [existing and new] fell 10.33% YoY. Average and median prices were much lower, down 6.49% and 2.98%. Among those condos that have sold:

Single Family Homes

YoY, overall demand for single family housing is down 3.46% as measured in unit sales. Average prices were up 2.49% and median prices were down 5.45%. The median price for all categories of single family homes fell. Rowhouses had lower average and median prices while detached and semi-detached homes had higher average prices and higher unit sales.

Download the Data

You can download a listing of the June home and condo sales recorded in the District discussed in this post at no charge. Information in the listing includes [see below]:

  • Address
  • Sale price and sale date
  • Unit number [if a condo and if available]
  • Price per square foot
  • Square footage
  • The number of bedrooms and baths for each unit

Note: Data may not be available for all properties. My analysis is dependent upon the completeness and fidelity of the District's appraisal data.

June 2008 Sales ListingsAdd to Cart

Detailed Data

Aggregate by Zip Code

June 2008 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code.

Aggregate by Neighborhood

June 2008 average and median sales prices and unit volume by neighborhood.

Category by Zip Code


Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
  • My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
  • My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

Friday, October 31, 2008

David vs. Goliath

Here I am, little old me, struggling to finish processing the District's sales records for June and I find this on the web:


I don't think their index is the same as the Case-Shiller index, which started in January 2000.

I take comfort in knowing they took the easy road. Anyone can do single family homes, it's doing the condos that separates the "men" from the "boys" [no sexism intended].

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2008 report is out

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indice report for August 2008 was released today. It " shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first half of 2008 and has continued into the second half...Once again, the indices have set new records, with annual declines of 17.7% and 16.6%, respectively. However, the acceleration in decline was only moderate in August. The July data reported annual declines of 17.5% and 16.3%, respectively."

August's report gives the impression that DC homes prices may have hit bottom. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - has lessened and while homes prices were lower YoY, they were not as low as September's YoY pricing data. Effectively, the DC area's home price index has fallen to slightly above July 2004, but below AUgust 2004.

A 15.35% price decline is painful, but it's nothing compared to other cities. YoY, Las Vegas is down 30.6%, LA down 26.7%, Miami down 28.1%, and SF down 27.3%.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Wednesday, October 22, 2008

District Sales: June 2008 [Data uploaded]

It's taken a while, but I've finally been able to process data for sales recorded in the District in June 2008. The data have been uploaded and can be viewed at DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis forthcoming after I return from my weekend trip to Houston.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

District Sales: June 2008 [preliminary]

I've started processing the District's data for sales recorded in June 2008. It'll take me a few days to plow through it, but preliminary sales information on average prices per ward per housing type is provided in the table below.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

MRIS September Housing Report: A mixed bag

MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home sales in September 2008 yesterday. Compared to September 2007, unit sales are flat, there was lower dollar volume, but average sales prices for condos skyrocketed while those for single family homes tanked.

Since condo unit sales fell 12.61% and I know that about 5% of condo unit sales sold for more than $1M, 2 for more than $2.5M, I'm going to assume the apparent resurgence in the condo market's average sales prices is illusory.

Key YoY data points:

What I'm seeing in the data is:

  • The number of units going under contract in September compared to August fell 18.4%. For condos, the number fell 23.6% and fell 13% for homes.
  • Similarly, dollar volume [September to August] dropped precipitously. Overall, September's total dollar volume was down 23.75% from August. Condos, down 16.08%; homes, down 28.46%.
  • YoY, unit sales for condos were down 12.61% while up 9.02% in dollar volume [thanks to those million dollar condos]. Homes were down 12.35% on dollar volume, but up 14.36% on unit volume.The majority of units sold in September were single family homes.
  • Comparing September to January 2008, the aggregate average price in the District has fallen 6.51%. Average prices for condos are up 7.51% for the year while those for homes have fallen 14.37%.
  • Based on September's sales volume, there's now 7.87 months of inventory for condos and 9.15 months for homes, a 38.07% increase for condos and an increase of 27.45% for homes from August. Compared to September 2007, the number of condos listed has fallen 6% and risen 8.5% for homes.

2008 Trends

Average Sales Price

Change in Sales Price

Unit Sales Volume

Dollar Sales Volume

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Friday, October 10, 2008

MRIS September 2008 Sales Report: Preliminary data

MRIS released data for September 2008 sales in the District this morning. At a glance, it looks like average sales prices are down for all housing types except condos, but the ten condos that sold for $1M or more may have skewed the average. Even high end homes took it on the chin.

Key data points YoY:

  • Dollar volume: down 4.52%
  • Number of units [all categories] sold: down 0.24%
  • Number of condos sold: down 12.6%
  • Number of homes sold: up 14.36%

Analysis forthcoming.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Momma would be proud

She'll be thrilled to hear her son "made" the Wall Street Journal today.


Of course, now what do I do for an encore?