Saturday, January 12, 2008

MRIS December Housing Report: The Santa Claus rally

MRIS released its report on December sales of existing homes and condos [those listed or sold by real estate agents] in the District on January 10. The data show that condos and single family homes are selling for higher prices despite lower sales volumes. Key YoY data points:

  • Dollar volume was down 13.59%
  • The average price was up 8.75%
  • The median price rose 3.03%
  • The number of units sold - transaction volume - was down, 20.54%%
  • Average days on market increased markedly, 15.94%, to 80 days

In December we see:

  • Sales volume. Overall, down 20.54%. YoY, condo and home sales volume dropped, 26.07% and 14.78% respectively. Sales volume was negative across the board except for 2 bedroom homes. Condos represented less than half of the units sold, 47.46%. From November to December, volume fell 3.45% for condos and rose 10.22% for homes.
  • Dollar volume. In aggregate, down 13.59%. YoY, condos were down almost 24% while homes were down 6.66%, values almost mirroring those for November. Dollar volume was negative for 3 and 4 bedroom homes in general, although detached 3 and 4 bedroom homes had positive growth. Condos' share of the dollar volume, 35.2%, fell compared to December 2006.
  • Average sales price. Overall, up 8.75% YoY. Condos rose 2.85% to $408,012 while homes increased 9.52% YoY to $678,325.
  • Days on market. DOM was 80 days. A closer look shows that slightlyless than 59% of all homes sold within 60 days, a performance metric that's been pretty consistent these past few months.
  • Inventory. Based on the month's transaction rates and active listings, there is a 6 month supply of condos, a 12.07% drop from November, while home inventories are at 6.19 month's supply, a 19.17% decrease from October.

Compared to outlying areas such as Loudoun County or Prince William County, VA, the District fared well in December. The former saw declines in average and median prices [-8.05% and -6.82%] and a steep drop in sales volume [-30.51%]; the latter saw large declines in average and median prices [-15.68% and -15.77%] and a 22.54% drop in sales volume.

Looking at the pricing trends chart [see below], 2007 turned out to be a good year for housing in the District. The aggregate average price for homes and condos rose 10.16%. For single family home, average prices are +8.68% for the year [January - December]. Surprisingly, condos had a good year too, seeing a 9.69% gain for the same period. The center is holding. I'll provide an analysis comparing 2007 to 2006 shortly.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price Trends: 2007

Average Sales Price Trends: Year over Year

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

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