Friday, October 31, 2008

David vs. Goliath

Here I am, little old me, struggling to finish processing the District's sales records for June and I find this on the web:

I don't think their index is the same as the Case-Shiller index, which started in January 2000.

I take comfort in knowing they took the easy road. Anyone can do single family homes, it's doing the condos that separates the "men" from the "boys" [no sexism intended].

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2008 report is out

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indice report for August 2008 was released today. It " shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first half of 2008 and has continued into the second half...Once again, the indices have set new records, with annual declines of 17.7% and 16.6%, respectively. However, the acceleration in decline was only moderate in August. The July data reported annual declines of 17.5% and 16.3%, respectively."

August's report gives the impression that DC homes prices may have hit bottom. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - has lessened and while homes prices were lower YoY, they were not as low as September's YoY pricing data. Effectively, the DC area's home price index has fallen to slightly above July 2004, but below AUgust 2004.

A 15.35% price decline is painful, but it's nothing compared to other cities. YoY, Las Vegas is down 30.6%, LA down 26.7%, Miami down 28.1%, and SF down 27.3%.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

District Sales: June 2008 [Data uploaded]

It's taken a while, but I've finally been able to process data for sales recorded in the District in June 2008. The data have been uploaded and can be viewed at and Analysis forthcoming after I return from my weekend trip to Houston.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

District Sales: June 2008 [preliminary]

I've started processing the District's data for sales recorded in June 2008. It'll take me a few days to plow through it, but preliminary sales information on average prices per ward per housing type is provided in the table below.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

MRIS September Housing Report: A mixed bag

MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home sales in September 2008 yesterday. Compared to September 2007, unit sales are flat, there was lower dollar volume, but average sales prices for condos skyrocketed while those for single family homes tanked.

Since condo unit sales fell 12.61% and I know that about 5% of condo unit sales sold for more than $1M, 2 for more than $2.5M, I'm going to assume the apparent resurgence in the condo market's average sales prices is illusory.

Key YoY data points:

What I'm seeing in the data is:

  • The number of units going under contract in September compared to August fell 18.4%. For condos, the number fell 23.6% and fell 13% for homes.
  • Similarly, dollar volume [September to August] dropped precipitously. Overall, September's total dollar volume was down 23.75% from August. Condos, down 16.08%; homes, down 28.46%.
  • YoY, unit sales for condos were down 12.61% while up 9.02% in dollar volume [thanks to those million dollar condos]. Homes were down 12.35% on dollar volume, but up 14.36% on unit volume.The majority of units sold in September were single family homes.
  • Comparing September to January 2008, the aggregate average price in the District has fallen 6.51%. Average prices for condos are up 7.51% for the year while those for homes have fallen 14.37%.
  • Based on September's sales volume, there's now 7.87 months of inventory for condos and 9.15 months for homes, a 38.07% increase for condos and an increase of 27.45% for homes from August. Compared to September 2007, the number of condos listed has fallen 6% and risen 8.5% for homes.

2008 Trends

Average Sales Price

Change in Sales Price

Unit Sales Volume

Dollar Sales Volume

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Friday, October 10, 2008

MRIS September 2008 Sales Report: Preliminary data

MRIS released data for September 2008 sales in the District this morning. At a glance, it looks like average sales prices are down for all housing types except condos, but the ten condos that sold for $1M or more may have skewed the average. Even high end homes took it on the chin.

Key data points YoY:

  • Dollar volume: down 4.52%
  • Number of units [all categories] sold: down 0.24%
  • Number of condos sold: down 12.6%
  • Number of homes sold: up 14.36%

Analysis forthcoming.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Momma would be proud

She'll be thrilled to hear her son "made" the Wall Street Journal today.

Of course, now what do I do for an encore?

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Small may be beautiful...

But is it economical?

I thought it would be interesting to see how much a District condo costs on a per square foot basis in each District neighborhood. Moreover, does sales price per square foot increase or decrease as the number of bedrooms increase? So, I pulled data for 2008 condo sales [January - May] and, after deleting those sales for which I had no information on sales price per square foot [usually because the condo's CAMA data aren't available through the District's public websites], plopped it into an Excel pivot table. See the table below.

In the aggregate, sales price per square foot decline as the number of bedrooms increases. Obviously, there are exceptions, but in general the rule applies for each neighborhood, too.

Interestingly, the most expensive condo sale on a $/sq ft basis in Old City II was a 419 square feet studio that sold for $942.72/sq foot.