Tuesday, December 30, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: October 2008 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for October 2008 was released today. By now the gloomy report has been trumpeted on the web and will be the lead story on tonight's network news shows. It "shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007." As stated in the NY Times:

“October was clearly the free-fall month,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Everything was going against us in October, without exception.”

October's report shows the DC area's market continues to decline. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - fell again. Effectively, the DC area's home price index is now between that of May and June 2004. If it's any consolation, things are worse elsewhere:

Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Monday, December 22, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller: September 2008 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for September 2008 was released while I was in Australia [yes, I'm that far behind in current events]. It "shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007."

“The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004. As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down 21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%.”

While August's report gave the impression that DC homes prices may have hit bottom, September's shows the market has resumed its decline. The rate of monthly decline - the acceleration - increased significantly. Effectively, the DC area's home price index has fallen to slightly above June 2004, but below July 2004.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Friday, December 12, 2008

MRIS November Housing Report

This past Wednesday, MRIS released its data for signed sales contracts for existing home and condo sales in November 2008. Compared to November 2007, unit sales and dollar volume tanked, average and median sales prices were down. Key YoY data points:

What I'm seeing in the data:

  • The condo market fell off the cliff: unit sales and dollar volume fell 40.95% and 38.12% YoY, respectively. Home sales were no better: unit sales down 21.78%, dollar volume down 32.45%
  • Average prices for condos rose 4.78% while those for homes fell 13.64%.
  • Comparing November to January 2008, the aggregate average price in the District has fallen 8.24%. The average price for a condo is down 8.61% for the year while home prices have fallen 10.09%.
  • Based on November's sales volume, there are now a whopping 11.58 months of inventory for condos and 11.34 months for homes, a 32.24% increase for condos and a 31.38% decrease for homes from October. Compared to November 2007, the number of condos listed is essentially flat, up 0.19%, while home listings grew 15.72%.
  • Overall, the unit sales volume in November was the lowest for the year. That was true for condos, too.
  • November also had the lowest total dollar volume for any month in 2008. Dollar volume for condos and homes were the lowest of the year.

2008 Trends

Average Sales Price

Change in Sales Price

Unit Sales Volume

Dollar Sales Volume

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

MRIS November 2008 Sales Report: Preliminary data

Yikes!

I don't know what else to say. Today MRIS released November's data for sales of existing homes in the District and it's awful. Probably the worst YoY performance I've ever seen. Key points:

  • Dollar volume down 34.36%
  • Unit sales volume [aggregate] down 31.51%
  • Home unit sales down 21.78%
  • Condo unit sales down 40.95%

At that sales rate, the condo market almost has a year's supply listed for sale.

Analysis forthcoming.

I'm Back

I've returned from Oz - it was a fantastic trip. Very nice people, amazing sights, e.g., seeing 11 cockatoos on the beach at Trinity Beach early one morning [the one time I didn't have a camera!].

I've started processing sales data for July through September and hope to have it uploaded in the next day or so. Broadly speaking, there were about 2000 sales recorded in those three months, about 50/50 condos/homes. Given the span of time and volume of data involved, I expect to offer an analysis, but not in the format I've used in the past.

Welcome to all the new readers of my blog from Chicago!