Wednesday, September 30, 2009

District Sales: July 2009 [by neighborhood]

I've begun analyzing the District's sales data for July 2009. If all goes well, I should complete the analysis by week's end. Below is a table showing sales by District neighborhood. As usual, Old City I and Old City II dominate sales.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Thursday, September 24, 2009

District Sales: July 2009 [preliminary]

I've begun processing the District's sales data for July 2009. While I'm in the early stages, here's an early [unadjusted] peek at the data.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

MRIS Analyses: Year to date sales trends

Using MRIS's 2009 data published to date [August], I thought it'd be interesting to see the sales trends for sales of existing homes and condos in the District.

Price Trend

Generally, prices are flat to slightly negative for the year. Compared to January, August's aggregate sales prices are 5.86% lower. Condos are down 6.33% and home prices are essentially flat, down 0.7%.

Price Change

Except for three months when condo prices spiked, YoY prices are in negative territory compared to 2008.

Sales Volume

What's particularly quite striking is the significant increase in sales volume as the year progressed, which I'm sure results in no small part from the Fed's efforts to create market liquidity through its purchase of $1.45T in mortgages. Despite the surge in sales, though, prices continue to slide.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

MRIS August 2009 Housing Report

MRIS released its data for August signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District last Thursday. As in its July report, sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. However, August's data were slightly weaker than July's. Where it was positive, it was not as positive.

Key points in August's data:

  • Overall dollar volume was flat, ticking upwards a slight 0.59%. Compared to July, Ausgust was a more temperate month for condos, with a 7.58% upward movement. Homes were down by 3.7%.
  • Sales volume was good, increasing 20.16% YoY, but, again, not as strong as July. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 16.54% and 23.89%, respectively.
  • Prices told a sad tale, each metric almost exactly matching July's performance. Average prices fell 16.29%. Condo prices fell 7.68%, while home prices tanked, dropping 22.27%. Not a single home category experienced higher prices in August.
  • At July's sales rate, there is a 4.92 month's supply of condo units on the market, 6.64% less than July. For homes, 5.51 months, 7.29% more.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

District Sales: June 2009

Hello, how are you? Long time, no data! Ever since I returned from Australia last December, I keep falling into the trap of having to process three month's worth of data at a time. It's a killer. Anyway, I've finished processing, geocoding, and uploading sales data for March through June 2009. I don't plan to perform an analysis of March - May's sales data, but I will soon post sales listings for purchase, yours for the incredible price of $0.99!

The table below shows June 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from June 2008.


There are still a lot of foreclosures working through the system. I counted 47 probable foreclosures in the data.

State of the Market

In June the District recorded 710 residential sales. Overall, prices were down, sales volume was up. District-wide, average sales price fell 11.67% and the median sales price fell 3.65%. The condo market suffered a 1.21% drop in unit sales and dollar volume declined 6.77%. The number of homes sold grew a robust 25.08% and dollar volume was similarly positive, up 2.11%. However, average and median sales prices for homes fell, down 18.37% and down 8.97%, respectively.

All Wards saw declines in average prices and only two (Wards 1 and 3) had positive median price growth.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1 and 2, constituting 71.3% and 76.72% of units sold, respectively.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of June's recorded sales by sales price.


Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code


Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
  • My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
  • My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

Friday, September 11, 2009

MRIS August 2009 Sales Report: Preliminary data

MRIS released August's data for sales of existing homes in the District yesterday. As in my District sales data, it shows that prices are falling, but volume is up. Unclear how much of that is driven by foreclosures. Key points [YoY]:

  • Dollar volume flat, up a mere 0.59%
  • Average price is down 16.29%, median is down 7.59%
  • Unit sales volume [aggregate] surged up 20.16%
  • Home unit sales up 23.9%
  • Condo unit sales spiked up 16.54%

Sales prices were 92.49% of list. At August's sales rate, there is a 4.9 month supply of condos and 5.54 month supply of homes listed for sale, which would normally be an indicator of a tight market.

Analysis forthcoming.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

District Sales: June 2009 [By Neighborhood]

OK, I've started analyzing the sales data I just finished processing. The table below shows District prices and sales volume for June 2009, by neighborhood. Old City I and II had the lion's share of the month's transactions.

As you can see below, compared to June 2008, 73 more homes/condos sold in June 2009, but average/median prices fell and total dollar volume fell, too.

On another note, as you can see [waaaay down at the bottom right of this page] I've started investigating what I can do with this site and the "Facebooks". I've even started a Group, DCHousingPrices.com. Given that the NY Times is reporting people are leaving Facebook, maybe I've missed the boat on this one. Should I check out MySpace?

Sales data uploaded

Sales data through June 30, 2009 has been uploaded to DCHomePrices.com and DCCondoPrices.com. Analysis forthcoming.

I gotta quit falling behind - this is killing me. It would be easier if the District quit misspelling its own street names, too. Repeat after me: Sedgwick, not Sedgewick. Runnymede, not Runnymeade.