Wednesday, October 28, 2009

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2009 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for August 2009 was released yesterday. The report show "that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s [July] reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009."

“Broadly speaking, the rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two Composites and 19 of the 20 metro areas showed an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, 17 of the MSAs and both Composites saw price increases in August over July. While many of the markets remain down versus this time last year, the relative rate of decline has shown some real improvement."

But there is a caveat.

"Once again, however, we do want to remind people of the upcoming expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November and anticipated higher unemployment rates through year-end. Both may have a dampening effect on home prices.”

YoY, DC area prices are 8.22% lower, with prices increasing 1.43% July to August.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Repeat after me...

I've begun processing August's sales data. Based on what I've seen so far, I must ask the District government to repeat after me: it's TODD Place NE, not TOOD Place NE.

Thank you. You may now resume awarding contracts to our mayor's fraternity brothers.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

MRIS September 2009 Housing Report

MRIS released its data for September signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District a few days ago. As in its August [and July and June and May] report, sales and dollar volume are up and prices are lower than the same period last year. More is selling, but for less. Plus ├ža change... Before we get excited and go shopping, remember that we're now into the one year anniversary of the financial collapse kindly brought to us by the Bagatelle brunching idiots who work on Wall Street. So it ain't as good as it looks.

Key points in September's data:

  • YoY, aggregate dollar volume jumped 18.56%. Condo dollar volume surged 29% and that of homes grew 11%,
  • Sales volume was robust, increasing 34.96% YoY. Condos and homes both shared in the positive growth, increasing 41.75% and 28.84%, respectively.
  • Prices continue their tale of woe. Average prices fell 12.15%. Condo prices fell 8.98%, while home prices dropped 13.82%. As in August, not a single home category experienced higher prices YoY.
  • At September's sales rate, there is a 5.35 month's supply of condo units on the market, 8.82% more than August. For homes, 6.39 months, 15.9% more.

Detailed Data

Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume


Transaction Volume

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

MRIS September 2009 Housing Report [preliminary]

MRIS released September's data for sales of existing homes in the District over the weekend. As in my District sales data, it shows that prices are falling, but volume is up. We're at the point where, at least in terms of dollar and sales volume, the metrics should be significantly higher than last year's, since we're marking the first anniversary of the financial collapse delivered to us by the Bagatelle brunching "kings" of Wall Street. Key points [YoY]:

  • Dollar volume up 18.56%
  • Average price is down 12.15%, median is down 4.7%
  • Unit sales volume [aggregate] exploded 34.96%
  • Home unit sales up 28.8%
  • Condo unit sales up a whopping 41.76%

Sales prices were 91.78% of list. At September's sales pace, there is a 5.35 month supply of condos and 6.39 month supply of homes listed for sale, slightly higher than the previous month.

Analysis forthcoming.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

District Sales: August 2009 [preliminary]

I've begun processing the District's sales data for August 2009. While I'm in the early stages, here's an early [unadjusted] peek at the data.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

District Sales: July 2009

I've finished processing, geocoding, and uploading sales data for July 2009. The table below shows July 2009 average and median sales prices and unit volume by zip code and the percentage change from July 2008. This blog is starting to sound like "99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall" - each month's verse is the same, it's just the month that changes. Once again, sales volume up, prices down. "Sell one more, for a lower price..." I think I'll stick to my day job.

I noticed our Canadian friends have bought another property, a rowhouse near the Capitol, paying slightly more than $2.2M. I guess the toonie goes further down here now.

State of the Market

In July the District recorded 760 residential sales. Overall, prices were down, sales volume was up. District-wide, average sales price fell 9.93% and the median sales price fell 10.2%. Unit sales were up 8.57%. The condo market suffered a 1.48% increase in unit sales and dollar volume declined 8.21%. The number of homes sold grew a healthy 15.19% and dollar volume was up a slight 1.58%. However, average and median sales prices for homes fell sharply, down 11.82% and down 19.57%, respectively. By my estimation, foreclosures accounted for 68 of the recorded sales, about 8.9% of sales.

All but two Wards saw declines in average and median prices; two (Wards 3 and 6) had positive price growth. Despite that, all but three had an increase in unit sales.

Condo sales ruled Wards 1 and 2, constituting 74.49% and 78.57% of units sold, respectively.

Almost all neighborhoods saw declines in average and median prices.

Distribution of Sales

The chart below shows the distribution of July's recorded sales by sales price.

Detailed Data

Sales by Neighborhood

Category by Zip Code


Category by Ward

Disclaimer:

  • Unlike MRIS, my data and analyses include new units [primarily condos] so there will be some differences in my conclusions about the market's state compared to a similar analysis based solely on MRIS reports, which only report sales of existing units sold and/or listed by real estate agents.
  • This analysis is of sales recorded by the District during the month as opposed to sales settled in the month, which is what MRIS reports, so there may be some discrepancies because of timing issues. However, I believe the data do provide a helpful indicator of trends in the District.
  • Sales may have been recorded by the District's Recorder of Deed during the month yet may not appear in the District's real property sales database, my data source, many months later. Consequently, those sales will not be in the month's analysis.
  • My analysis is based on District sales and appraisal data that I've collected and processed. I've deleted those sales that appear to be of questionable data quality. Errors are always possible.
  • My analysis is limited to condos and single family homes; I omit properties the District classifies as multifamily conversions. I'm sure I'm excluding some properties that are legitimate single family homes, but I want to eliminate uncertainty.

Thursday, October 01, 2009

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2009 report

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for July 2009 was released Tuesday. You could almost hear the champagne bottles popping all over the country, considering how the media reported it. The report show "although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading."

“The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.”

The report's chart shows that nationally, home prices are back to "the autumn of 2003" level. YoY, DC area prices are 9.81% lower. While prices continue to rise in the DC area, the price increase June/July was less than that of May/June.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.