Monday, August 23, 2010

MRIS July 2010 Housing Report

MRIS released its data for July about two weeks ago. I think the report's a little deceptive. Yes, average prices are up. However, unit sales and dollar are down. It turns out that having 50 units sell for more than $1 million can sure juice the month's average sales price. Oh, and has anyone mentioned that inventory has exploded?

Key points in July's data:
  • YoY, aggregate dollar volume fell 7.02% and the number of units sold cratered 18.36% [I learned a new verb!]. However, average sales price rose an impressive 13.9%.
  • Condo dollar volume fell off a cliff, down 17.98%. Home dollar volume was comatose, down 0.4%.
  • Condo sales volume were pushed off the cliff, down 29.45%. Home sales volume was down 8.26%. 
  • Average prices exhibited a split personality. Condo prices increased 16.26%, while home prices were up 8.57%.
At July's sales rate there's a 7.02 months supply of condos and 5.17 months supply for houses. More ominously, compared to June the condo inventory grew 23.3% while that of homes blossomed 35.73%.

Detailed Data
Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Saturday, August 14, 2010

District Sales: June 2010 [preliminary]

Well, I'm definitely back in the saddle again. I downloaded and have begun processing the District's sales data for June 2010. There's still much to do, but here are some preliminary data.

Average Sales Price
Number of Units Sold

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

MRIS July 2010 Sales Report: Preliminary data

MRIS released July's data for sales of existing homes in the District yesterday. On the surface, prices appear to have risen significantly. Key points [YoY]:
  • Dollar volume was down 7.02%
  • Average price was up 13.9%, median increased 11.4%.
  • Unit sales volume [aggregate] was down 18.36%.
  • Home unit sales fell 8.52%; 50 homes sold for more than $1MM!
  • Condo unit sales were down a whopping 29.4% YoY although prices rose 16.26%; 9 sold for more than $1MM.
Sales prices were 94.46% of list. There is a 7.02 month supply of condos and 5.17 month supply of homes listed for sale.

I don't pay attention to the days on market metric since it can be gamed by listing agents. The significant data to me is:
  • The condo inventory doubled since June [as measured by units listed divided by the number sold in the month].
  • Unit sales are down.
  • Dollar volume is down.
I think that since so many properties sold for more than $1MM [59 out of 529], the average price metric is almost meaningless as serving as an indicator of the market's future performance.

Analysis forthcoming.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

MRIS June 2010 Housing Report

I'm back. My new venture's been launched and time [and the economy] will tell whether it's a success.

MRIS released its data for April, May, and June since my last post in March. Although it'll release its latest report for signed sales contracts for existing home and condos in the District on August 10, I thought I'd start catching up by posting data for June; April and May will follow. Need I say it? Dollar and sales volume up, prices flat to negative. Not much has changed!

Key points in June's data:
  • YoY, aggregate dollar volume increased 18.39% and the number of units sold increased 16.99%. However, average sales price rose a measly 1.19%.
  • Condo dollar volume fell 1.18%. Home dollar volume leapt 29.55%.
  • Condo sales volume increased 3.62%. Home sales volume grew 27.98%.
  • Condo prices dropped 4.63%, while home prices were up 1.23%, essentially flat.
Interestingly, at June's sales rate there's a 5.7 months supply of condos and 3.81 months supply for houses. Both metrics imply a tight market, which makes the flat price movement even curiouser. Moreover, compared to May the condo inventory grew 9.75% while that of homes fell 17.06%.

Detailed Data
Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume