Saturday, February 26, 2011

MRIS Zip Code Report for January 2011: 20009

I wrote this sales analysis for my good friends at Urban Turf, who published a more polished version a few days ago on their site.

In this post, I look at January sales recorded for DC zip code 20009 using data released by MRIS. That zip code is roughly bordered by Q St NW on the south, Connecticut Ave NW on the west, 11th Street NW on the east, and Irving Street NW on the north. The Dupont Circle [excluding Dupont Circle itself], Columbia Heights, and Adams Morgan neighborhoods are encompassed within those borders.


Forty-two units sold in zip code 20009 in January 2011. Key points in January's data:
  • YoY, aggregate dollar volume rose 71.01% and the number of units sold was 68% greater. However, aggregate average sales price was almost flat, up a mere 1.79%.
  • Condos made the market in 20009. In January, they accounted for ~75% of units sold and ~65% of the dollar volume. And yet their average price fell 6.52% YoY.
  • YoY, condo dollar volume was up 57.43%, unit volume was up 68.42%. Given that their average price fell, it appears to be a case of more units selling for lower prices.
  • January was a good month for homes. YoY, dollar volume doubled, up 102.89%. Unit sales rose 66.67% and the average price rose 21.74%.
  • No condo sold for more than $1MM and one home sold for $1MM-2.49MM.
In January, zip code 20009 represented 12.32% of DC's dollar volume and 11.02% of unit sales. In comparison to the District as a whole, its average price was 11.73% higher and its median price was 31.49% higher.

At January's sales rate there's a 3.97 months supply of condos and 2.8 months supply for houses listed in 20009. In other words, a tight market good for sellers.

Detailed Data
Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller Report: December 2010

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report for December 2010 was releasedtoday. The sales data:
"show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010.  The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009."
Only DC and San Diego experienced price growth compared to December 2009. The S&P/Case-Shiller graph depicts what may be a double dip in housing prices.
"The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009. Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.
YoY, DC prices rose 4.12%. However, prices were flat for the June - December period, rising only 0.22%.

The charts below reflect home price data for the Washington, DC MSA.



Friday, February 18, 2011

MRIS Report for January 2011: Zip Code 20003

I wrote this sales analysis for my good friends at Urban Turf, who published a more polished version a few days ago on their site.

MRIS released its sales data for January last week. In this post, I look at sales recorded for DC zip code 20003. Roughly speaking, that zip code is bordered on the north by East Capitol Street, on the west by South Capitol Street, and by the Anacostia River. It includes the Capitol Hill, Hill East, and Navy Yard neighborhoods.


Only 18 units sold in zip code 20003 in January so the data are probably not statistically significant. However, key points in January's data:
  • YoY, aggregate dollar volume fell 25.72% and the number of units sold dropped 35.71%. Aggregate average sales price rose 15.55%.
  • Condo dollar volume fell by more than a third, down 37.7%. Home dollar volume was lower, too, down 22.01%.
  • Condo sales volume flew off the cliff like "Thelma and Louise", down 55.56%. Home sales volume was down 26.32%. 
  • Despite the dearth of sales, average prices were up. Condo prices increased 40.17% and home prices were up 5.84%. No condo sold for more than $800,000 and no home sold for $1MM or more.
Zip code 20003 represented 5.92% of DC's dollar volume and 4.72% of unit sales in January. In comparison to the District as a whole, its average price was 25.23% higher and its median price was 29.71% higher.

At January's sales rate there's a 10.75 months supply of condos and 4.71 months supply for houses. In other words, great if you're selling a house, dire if you're trying to unload a condo.

Detailed Data
Average Sales Price

Dollar Volume

Transaction Volume